καταραμένος αν κάνετε, κολασμένων αν δεν το κάνουν.

The title of this article is my translation of "Damned if you do, damned if you don't" into Greek. I won't vouch for my Greek or for how well the expression translates.

The Greeks have tried everything and still find their nation at the epicenter of the latest crisis to hit the European Union. We predicted awhile back that the Greek government would twist in the wind when it tried to enforce austerity measures. It was an easy prediction, of course, but we also noted that the social democrats now governing Greece took power in the last elections at the expense of an ultra-right and that some kind of united front is needed in Greece to hold the line against the right and austerity measures. That has yet to develop to the extent that we hoped it would, although unity between Greek workers across union and party lines is strong and seems to be deepening.

Greece isn't the only weak link in the European Union, and we get the sense that as the world capitalist crisis either deepens or bottoms out without increased employment and social spending the EU will continue to falter and perhaps eventually trip under its own weight. Portugal, Spain, Italy and Ireland are essentially in the same boat as Greece is. Ireland is a special case and demonstrates how precarious capitalist market relations can be. It was not so long ago that we heard much about the "Gaelic Tiger."

The annual Greek budget deficit is equal to something like 12.5 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP). Public debt in the country stands at something like 130 percent of GDP. Under conventional EU and dominant capitalist economics this means that Greece is crossing the line into bankruptcy. It certainly pushes the rules of the EU and helps throw the logic of the EU into serious disarray. This, in turn, creates a political crisis which echoes through Europe. The EU itself starts looking like something of a Ponzi scheme. Since the governing social democrats and the reactionary forces who lost the last Greek elections are both complicit in creating something of the basis and means of Greece's crisis, almost everyone in power or waiting in the wings for power is compromised. Greek workers and Greek youth are showing a predictable and remarkable capacity to struggle in defense of past gains and to protect what they can of the so-called "welfare state." Their struggles have also become part of the European-wide social crisis.

Italy and Greece are notoriously corrupt and, from a working class point of view, it is this corruption (and not workers' living standards) which inhibits economic growth, social spending and the foundations of lasting democratic political cultures. Monopoly capital in both countries is able to take advantage of anarchic tax structures and continually raise or maintain their rates of profit at the expense of society. Meanwhile, workers in both countries really are paying an unfair share of taxes and social funds and it is hard or impossible to believe that they can continue to do so for much longer and still derive much benefit from their respective governments. The current economic crisis aggravates what was becoming an untenable situation before the downward slide. Dependence on the EU is, of course, out of the question.

The EU is demanding some basic cuts in Greek living standards and the Greek social democratic government is so far showing an uncomfortable level of compliance or cooperation with these proposed cuts. In fact, Greece cannot stay within the EU rules, cut the budget deficit from 12.5 percent of GDP to 3 percent and maintain social benefits and civil society as we have known it. Temporary workers, retirees, the unemployed, government workers, farmers and rural residents and the youth are the most vulnerable under these new conditions. The government is left to squeezing the people and borrowing, perhaps only thankful that they are beating other countries to the bank windows. Politicized resistance to the EU proposals and to the probable disastrous effects of the borrowing has been immediate and dramatic even as the Greek left experiences some serious internal difficulties.

And who wants to loan money to Greece, Italy, Portugal, Ireland or Spain anyway? With the possible exceptions of Italy and Ireland, these countries have restive and relatively united working classes and leading left political parties which can lead resistance even when they cannot fully articulate alternatives. On the other hand, multinational monopoly capital can move from country to country and push standards ever lower, causing ever-additional economic and debt pressures which no amount of loans can hope to make up. The dominant thinking so far has been to grant bailouts to corporations, but at some point there will be no money and no will for further bailouts and the social democratic parties, however weak-kneed they may now be, may form the first lines of resistance. This will be followed logically by the Communist and workers' parties. Investors are squeezing their money until it screams right now and it is not yet screaming in Greek, Italian, Gaelic, Portuguese or Spanish. What is more, national pride and nationalism will chafe at borrowing from the Deutsche Bank. Investors, capitalists and EU officials are playing with a smouldering fire. What will happen if Greek unemployment hits 15 percent while taxes increase and this becomes the new normal?