If You Want Democracy, Make Polling Illegal

I'm fed up with political polling. Here's why:

If you've been reading the news recently you have probably noticed that poll after poll says the Republicans are going to win big time on November 2nd. Based on these polls it is now clear that the Republicans are going to at least take back the House of Representatives. Never mind the vote itself.

What more proof can there be of this impending Republican victory than other recent polls which show Obama's approval rating plummeting to new lows? Of course there's a fair number of other polls which seem to indicate that most folks dislike the Republicans even more than they dislike the Democrats.

For over a year now, poll after poll has also indicated that people are very angry at corporate America, especially the banks. Indeed people are so mad at the corporations, banks and the Republicans that they are likely to give the Republicans a landslide and in the process create a gilded cakewalk to even greater corporate profits -- or so the polls would seem to suggest.

This is not exactly scientific, but it seems that nine out of every ten politically oriented news articles end up justifying themselves with a poll. This must be where our democracy's heart and soul is - in the polls. Every time a poll is referred to, the illusion of democracy is resurrected; after all, what is a poll but a reference to what the people think? Or so we believe...

The reality of polling suggests something else. It is common knowledge that if one re-words a polling question, asking the same question in a different way, one will get wildly different responses. Thus, there's a quasi scientific art in phrasing the polling question so as to get the results one wants.

That fine art of phrasing is itself based on another piece of public opinion science called the focus group. Here, the focus group leader offers different phrasings of an idea at a group of people and then asks them for their reactions. Once the right "tweak" is found, a "message" can be "crafted" and then "tested" with carefully formulated polling questions designed to measure the public's acceptance of the original "message".

A caveat to this; a focus group never focuses on facts, rationales or justifications of the "message" to be developed. Instead, the focus group, and later the poll, plays to a visceral pre-conscious reaction to the question aimed at eliciting an opinion with absolutely no reference to to any justification of the opinion.

In practical terms, we've all been polled at one time or another. Do you ever remember a time where you were asked why you hold the opinion that was elicited from you?

Politics American Style:

When you get right down to it, most American political reporters could care less about analysis and background. It's a well known fact used by most political operatives that most Americans will "glaze over" if faced with a description and consequences (anticipated and not anticipated) of a particular policy or direction. This "glazing over" is not a cultural accident or imperfection; instead, it is a desired state of affairs.

Out of this "glazing over" ignorance, it is possible to create and manipulate public opinion in very big ways and at the same time maintain the illusion that we live in a democratic society. In this way, the political dialogue is devolved down to a horse race mentality where there is no substantive content, where only winners and losers matter and polls become the mechanism by which we measure the furlongs.

Making Polls Illegal:

First of all, it ain't gonna happen, not in America and not in the foreseeable future. Polls and focus groups are here for the long haul because here in America, freedom of speech is a commodity which can be bought on the open market. We all have free speech, but those with wealth and power can buy as much free speech as they can afford. Given our mega-rich and their corporations, this can be an awful lot of free speech; so much free speech that it might be able to drown out every other perspective out there. In America a monopoly of free speech in the marketplace of ideas might already be the fact, but I'm digressing.

All the same, imagine what American politics might look like if polls weren't around. First, without the focus group and polling process the whole "message" crafting structure of political discourse would most likely come tumbling down. Those who control political discourse would have grave difficulties "crafting" the message and they would be unable to test how the message might be playing in the public domain. Second, without the polls those who control the political discourse would not be able to amplify their message by invoking a poll created "public opinion". Third, something would need to change in the media's reporting of politics in that the horse race style of news coverage would no longer be possible without polls. Maybe an opening for real content in political reporting? We could only hope...

Of course, without focus groups and polls, sound-bites, slogans and the one sentence "analysis" might become dangerous to their authors rather than helpful; the authors wouldn't know which without the polling results. The sum effect might be moving the real political discourse in this country from the TV, radio and 15 second sound bite to something more substantial. Something more substantial might include a scenario where politicians would need to present reasoned and thoughtful positions to the electorate and where the electorate might actually engage with each other regarding the position and the rationale behind the position.

A Final Thought:

A final factor worth considering is that polls are not always accurate. Indeed, in times such as now where the political and social landscape is complicated, polls would most likely be even more inaccurate. This is because polls, with their yes/no format and artificially created categories of opinion are less able to accommodate a complicated reality.

For instance, right now based on media reports and media polling results one would think the Tea Party is some kind of majoritarian movement about to attain complete political hegemony on November 2nd. I note this morning a poll which places Jerry Brown five points ahead of Meg Whitman for the California Governor's race. I have a hunch that the Democratic majority in Oregon's legislature will do OK in November. Its also important to remember that the Tea Party at best represents about 25% of the electorate; hardly a majority.