Crisis as the New Normal: The Economic Situation at the End of the First Quarter of 2011

From Art Perlo:

Claims of recovery are not entirely empty. Let's look at them, before we examine, what kind of recovery and for whom?

GDP rose at a modest 3.1 percent rate in the fourth quarter of 2010. [1] Many other indicators of economic activity – freight tonnage, hotel occupancy, industrial production – have rebounded significantly from their low in 2009. [2] Like GDP, they are increasing moderately, but hardly at the rate of vigorous expansion.

Employment is growing faster than necessary to absorb new workers, but not by much. The rate of layoffs has declined more than 1/3 from its peak,[3] and job openings are above the low point in 2009, though still too few to make a significant dent in the numbers looking for work. [4] The official unemployment rate has declined modestly over the past year, but only because so many of the unemployed gave up looking for work and are no longer counted.

Despite some positive signs, in many ways the US economy is still in the depression phase of a capitalist cycle. This is seen in continued high levels of unemployment, large inventory of unsold goods (especially housing and commercial real estate) and excess capacity, though all of these have improved from their worst. And a large surplus of idle capital.

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