Syria: No To Intervention, No To Illusions

By Phyllis Bennis

ZNet
June 28, 2012

http://www.zcommunications.org/syria-no-to-intervention-no-to-illusions-by-phyllis-bennis

Fifteen months on, the short Syrian spring of 2011 has long since morphed into a harsh winter of discontent. Syria is close to full-scale civil war. If the conflict escalates further, it will have ramifications far outside the country itself. As former UN Secretary-General and current envoy of both the UN and the Arab League Kofi Annan put it, "'Syria is not Libya, it will not implode, it will explode beyond its borders. Syria is not Libya, it will not implode; it will explode beyond its borders."

Like so many other times before, the human cost of this conflict is incalculably high. It's not surprising that the normal human reaction is "we've got to do something!" But exactly what any army or air force might do that would actually help the situation isn't very clear. U.S./NATO military intervention didn't bring stability, democracy or security to Libya, and it certainly is not going to do so in Syria.

The one crucial outside approach that could help resolve at least the immediate conflict - serious negotiations in which both sides are represented - for the moment remains out of
reach. Former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, the joint UN and Arab League envoy in Syria, has proposed at a new diplomatic initiative that would include the Syrian regime's
supporters, Iran and Russia, as well as the U.S.-allied western countries and those Arab and regional governments backing the armed opposition. So far the U.S. has rejected the
proposal, at least regarding Iran, with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton saying that Tehran is part of the problem in Syria and thus can't be part of the solution. The current UN secretary-general, Ban ki-moon, who frequently reflects Washington's interests, further undercut the potential of his own envoy's proposal, saying that Assad has "lost all legitimacy" - diplomatic code for "we don't have to talk to him."

For those eager for analogies or counterparts, this isn't Egypt or Libya, where opposition to the leader was overwhelming. Despite his government's history of brutal repression, Bashar al-Assad still enjoys significant support from parts of Syria's business elites, especially in Damascus and Aleppo, and some in minority communities (Christian, Shi'a, parts of the Druse and even some Kurds) whom the regime had cultivated for many years. The opposition was divided from the beginning over whether massive reform or the end of the Assad regime was their goal. It divided still further when part of the opposition took up arms, and began to call for
international military intervention. The non- violent opposition movement, which still rejects calls for military intervention, survives, but under extraordinary threat.

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